What the inflation fall means for you

Good morning, this is It’s The Business, the finance, business and tech newsletter that keeps you informed so you can get ahead.

In today’s edition:

  • Ministers express grave concerns over budget

  • Greggs to launch Champagne bar

  • Uber may make ‘super-app’

UK inflation falls to 1.7%

📍Top line: UK inflation fell to 1.7 per cent in September, its lowest level since April 2021, dropping below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. The fall was driven by lower air fares and petrol prices, though food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation rose to 1.8 per cent, the first increase since March 2023.

🫵 What it means for you:

Benefits Increase: Benefits such as Universal Credit and disability payments will rise by 1.7%, meaning small increases (e.g., £5.30 for a single person under 25 on Universal Credit). However, this is lower than last year's 6.7% increase due to lower inflation.

State Pension: The state pension will increase by 4.1% due to the triple lock, raising the full flat-rate pension to £230.30 a week. However, many pensioners will lose their winter fuel payment.

Interest Rates: With inflation below 2%, interest rate cuts are more likely, potentially reducing mortgage rates but lowering returns for savers. Renters continue to face an 8.4% annual increase in costs.

Budget Implications: Lower inflation could reduce the government’s benefits bill but may also limit tax revenue if fewer people are pushed into higher tax brackets due to stagnant wage growth.

Senior ministers express grave concern over Budget

📍 Top line: Senior UK ministers have written to Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressing serious concerns over the scale of spending cuts they face in the upcoming October 30 budget. Several cabinet members are alarmed that the proposed reductions could threaten their ability to deliver on election promises and meet the expectations of voters.

🔎 In-depth:

  • Multiple ministers sent formal letters to Starmer about the cuts, marking an escalation in the pre-budget discussions.

  • The cuts are part of a £40 billion plan of tax increases and spending reductions led by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to restore public finances.

  • Ministers are particularly concerned about the impact on spending for the next year, which could affect welfare and local government services.

  • Reeves has paused key infrastructure projects, including rail links and hospitals, but areas like health care and criminal justice still face intense pressure for funding.

  • Cabinet members fear the cuts are politically unfeasible, with some asking Starmer to reverse planned reductions.

  • Starmer has called for “tough decisions” to ensure future investment, framing the budget as necessary to repair the damage from previous Conservative governance.

Elsewhere in the economy:

🍲 Marks & Spencer has increased its share of the UK grocery market, with a third of households now shopping there. Over the past 12 weeks, M&S’s sales rose by 12.4%, and its market share grew to 3.7%, up from 3.4% last year. The retailer has attracted 800,000 new customers in the past month, making it the fastest-growing traditional supermarket since August, according to data from NIQ.

🚆 London Underground passengers face significant disruption next month as transport unions Aslef and RMT have announced strikes over pay disputes. Aslef confirmed drivers will strike on November 7 and 12, while RMT has scheduled various stoppages from November 1 to 8. The strikes threaten to impact around 4 million weekday users, although they could be called off if Transport for London (TfL) reaches a last-minute agreement with the unions. According to TfL's 2023 figures, London Underground drivers earn between £64,000 and £67,000 annually, with many boosting their income through overtime.

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Greggs to launch Champagne bar

📍Top line: Greggs, the popular British bakery known for its sausage rolls, is stepping up its game with a festive pop-up champagne bar in Newcastle. The reservation-only bar will serve Greggs' classic baked goods alongside high-end champagne, including £75 glasses of Louis Roederer Cristal.

🔎 In-depth:

  • Location: Newcastle's Fenwick department store, opening next week.

  • Menu: Greggs bakes paired with champagnes like Bollinger and Laurent Perrier, starting at £10 a glass.

  • Champagne: Top offering is £75 per glass for Louis Roederer Cristal.

  • Unique Experience: A 16-seat bar with a 1920s Parisian-inspired design and vintage crystal bells for refills.

  • Affordable Food: Greggs' bakes, including sausage rolls, priced under £5.

  • Greggs' Statement: Aims to offer a fun, "unique experience" for Christmas shoppers.

  • Last Year’s Success: Follows the hit of 2022's Bistro Greggs, which drew 8,000 diners.

Elsewhere in business:

✈️ Ryanair's CEO, Michael O'Leary, has warned that the airline may cut hundreds of UK flights if Chancellor Rachel Reeves raises air passenger duty (APD) in her upcoming Budget. O'Leary said any increase in the tax, especially on domestic flights, could reduce customer demand and make some routes unprofitable, leading to cutbacks. He emphasised that these domestic routes barely break even and would be the first affected.

 Meta has fired around two dozen employees for misusing company meal credits, buying non-food items like acne pads, wine glasses, and laundry detergent. The meal credits, intended for in-office meals, were allegedly pooled or used for home deliveries.Staff who abused the system over an extended period were terminated. The terminations came just before Meta began restructuring teams across WhatsApp, Instagram, and Reality Labs, part of CEO Mark Zuckerberg's ongoing efficiency drive.

Revolut has opened applications to its Product Owner Internship Programme. The programme will see successful applicants work alongside the firm’s product development team, assisting with product strategy and delivery. The position is open to undergraduates in their penultimate year of study who are on track to receive a first class degree. Apply now here.

Uber considers Expedia acquisition to make ‘super-app’

📍Top line: Uber is exploring the possibility of acquiring Expedia, a $20 billion US travel booking site, in what could be its largest-ever deal as it looks to diversify and fuel new growth opportunities. While no formal approach has been made, the ride-hailing company has engaged in discussions to evaluate the feasibility of the acquisition, according to the FT.

🔎 In-depth:

  • Early-stage discussions: Uber approached advisers to examine how a potential deal could be structured, although no official bid has been made.

  • Role of CEO Dara Khosrowshahi: The Uber CEO, who previously led Expedia and remains on its board, would likely recuse himself from any deal negotiations. His past ties could facilitate a friendly approach.

  • Expanding Uber's vision: Acquiring Expedia would support Uber's aim to evolve into a "super app," offering a range of services beyond ride-hailing, including food delivery and travel bookings.

  • Financial caution: Uber is keen to ensure that any potential deal would not risk its recent investment-grade credit rating, gained after a surge in its stock and operational profitability.

  • Market reaction: Following news of the discussions, Expedia's shares rose by 7.6%, while Uber's stock dipped by 2.7%.

Elsewhere in tech:

📺 Disney Plus is raising the price of its ad-free standard and premium plans starting today. The ad-free standard plan will increase to £8.99 per month from £7.99, while the premium plan will go up to £12.99 from £10.99.

📖 Amazon has unveiled a major update to its Kindle lineup, launching four new models, including its first-ever colour-screen Kindle. The revamped range includes an updated entry-level Kindle, a faster Paperwhite, a redesigned Scribe, and the highlight: the color-screen Kindle. The new colour Kindle, priced at £269.99 in the UK, is designed for displaying more vivid images, ideal for graphic novels, cookbooks, and travel guides. Pre-orders are now open, with shipping set to begin on October 30.

🎤 Liam Payne, former One Direction star, has tragically died after falling from a third-floor hotel balcony in Buenos Aires. Local police reported being called to the scene following reports of an "aggressive man" suspected to be under the influence of drugs and alcohol. Payne’s fall occurred shortly after officers arrived at the hotel. Fans have gathered outside the hotel to mourn the 31-year-old's passing, lighting candles, singing One Direction songs, and holding moments of silence.

🧬 Scientists are edging closer to bringing the Tasmanian tiger back from extinction, claiming their DNA sequence for the extinct marsupial is 99.9% accurate. The thylacine, Australia’s only native apex predator, was hunted to extinction by 1936. Now, U.S. and Australian researchers, led by Colossal Biosciences, aim to bring it back, marking a potential milestone in "de-extinction" science.

🚨 Counter-terrorism police are investigating whether Russian spies planted an incendiary device on a plane bound for Britain, which later caught fire at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham. The fire occurred on July 22 at a parcel facility in Minworth, a suburb of Birmingham. Although no one was injured in the blaze, which was quickly dealt with by the local fire brigade and staff, the investigation is focusing on the potential security risk.